Hoosiers Could Be Blue in November

Indiana voters have a trio of big decisions to make in November: Governor, U.S. senator, and president. Though the state has trended red as of late, developments this week could make things very interesting there in the next few months.

raise money and campaign while facing former Indiana House Speaker John Gregg who has been doing both for over a year. Gregg has $5.8 million in the bank, a veritable fortune in Indiana.


Pence's withdrawal is not the only good news that Indiana Democrats got this week. Former Democratic representative Baron Hill dropped out of the Senate race. This was good news because while he was a solid candidate, he was promptly replaced by a superstar of a candidate, former senator and governor Evan Bayh. In contrast to whoever will replace Pence, Bayh has no issues with name recognition (not only is he famous, but he comes from a political dynasty) and has no issues with money (he still has $9 million in the bank from his previous Senate career).

Meanwhile, the above developments could cause the blue team to make Indiana a focal point for the presidential campaign. The state is not entirely out of reach for Hillary Clinton—Barack Obama won there in 2008—and Party leaders could conclude that money/campaign time spent there is a 3-for-1 type of bargain, improving their chances in three different races at the same time.

Adding (slightly) to the intrigue is that various state laws forbidding robo-polling and the like make Indiana one of the most expensive and most difficult states in the U.S. to survey. If any or all of the races above are close, we may have no idea how they will turn out until the ballots have actually been counted.

Battleground State Polls Are All Over the Place

After weeks of bad polling news, Donald Trump's campaign finally got a reason to perk up a bit on Wednesday. Quinnipiac released major new polls of three swing states, and had The Donald leading 42-39 in Florida and 43-41 in Pennsylvania, and pulling even in Ohio at 41-41. The margin of error was three points, so these are essentially "tossup" results, which is a lot better than recent polls that had him down 3-10 points in all three states.

The good news didn't last long, though. On Thursday, NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist also released a batch of new polls, and it was back to being good news for Clinton. They had her up between six and nine points in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia, up three in Iowa, and tied in Ohio.

What to make of this? Well, it again underscores that the polls are so volatile at this point in the race that they don't mean a whole lot. This is why we will not be updating the map above until at least both Veeps are known. Another takeaway is that Quinnipiac's results in this cycle have regularly been at odds with most other pollsters. Something may be wrong with their model, and on Election Day, they might well have some explaining to do. Or, it may be that they've figured something out that others haven't yet, and it will be the other houses that will be doing the explaining